The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - July 2, 2025
5 snips
Jul 2, 2025 The market shows a slight positive shift, with record highs for the S&P and Nasdaq, while the DOW remains flat. A troubling ADP private payroll report reveals its first negative figure in over two years. The labor market is experiencing slight increases in claims, indicating a balanced employment situation. Insights into the Federal Reserve's patient stance on interest rates emerge, alongside discussions on the Secure Act 2.0's implications for retirement savers. The session wraps up with a Q&A on lending rates and holiday well-wishes to listeners.
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Equity and Bond Market Movement
- Equity markets showed mixed results: the Dow was flat while the S&P and NASDAQ hit record highs during July 2nd trading.
- Bond yields rose slightly, with the 10-year yield up about three basis points, indicating modest market shifts.
Negative ADP but Mixed Employment Signals
- The ADP private payroll report showed -33,000 jobs, the first negative reading in two years, signaling slight employment softness.
- Yet, non-farm payrolls tend to be more influential, often surpassing ADP expectations and keeping market optimism.
Balanced Labor Market Despite Cracks
- Labor market shows slight cracks with increased weekly and continuing unemployment claims but balanced by strong job openings.
- The overall employment picture remains stable, not signaling significant weakening currently.