Neutrality Studies [Back issue] The End of Imperial Japan & Lessons for Ukraine | Dr. Richard Overy
Oct 13, 2025
Dr. Richard Overy, a historian of the Second World War and author of "Rain of Ruin," explores the complexities of Japan's surrender in 1945. He discusses the evolution of Allied bombing strategies and the moral implications behind the shift to firebombing. Overy emphasizes the internal fractures within Japan and how the emperor played a pivotal role in surrender dynamics. He reflects on the miscalculations regarding Soviet mediation and draws parallels to contemporary conflicts, stressing the importance of understanding historical lessons in today's geopolitical landscape.
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Escalation From Restraint To Total Bombing
- Bombing escalated as moral constraints were removed and victory took precedence over civilian protection.
- This radicalization of strategy shaped both European and Japanese air campaigns.
Why Firebombing Replaced Precision Attacks
- The U.S. shifted to low-level firebombing because precision bombing failed against Japan's jet stream and dispersed targets.
- Firebombing, especially Tokyo, caused casualties exceeding early atomic blasts and reshaped U.S. strategy.
Tokyo's Firestorm Rivaled Atomic Destruction
- Tokyo's single-night firebombing killed roughly 83,000 and exceeded initial atomic casualties.
- American leaders like Curtis LeMay believed continued bombing could obliterate Japan's urban capacity to fight.
