Coordination among 8 billion people is very tough. We're very far away from doing that with the intelligence that we have now, it's incredibly costly to send information to different people and for different people to learn about each other in order to trust each other… we should kind of expect that people will have a lot of trouble coordinating on a big scale. But if we could then we’d grow a lot!
…
In terms of least ‘failing with dignity’ do we think that the public did a good job in trying to investigate this and was misled? Or do we think that the public just like did a terrible job in like doing anything coordinated and just got hoodwinked super easily? I think we fall a lot more into the latter camp
Ozzie Gooen is the president of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). In this episode we discuss Utilitarianism, improving trust in organizations, communities, and governments, and his work in building better software for thinking, forecasting, and estimation.
Links from the Show
* The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute
* A video explaining QURI’s new Relative Value Estimation tool.
* Reports on the failure to identify Bernie Madoff’s fraud
Timestamps
[00:01:00] Worldview
[00:08:00] Starter Pack Philosophies
[00:12:00] How tools for better Epistemics fits into Utilitarianism
[00:20:00] Mistake theory vs Conflict Theory
[00:24:00] Improving EA institutions
[00:30:00] Justified Trust in Governments
[00:38:00] Contracts and monitoring for evaluating orgs
[00:46:30] Estimation utopias
[00:52:00] Centralization vs Decentralization
[00:58:00] The value of a good investigation in the case of FTX
[01:05:00] The importance of the OpenAI Board
[01:09:00] Estimating Relative Values
[01:18:15] Shared intellectual infrastructure
[01:26:00] Epistemically mature civilizations
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mutualunderstanding.substack.com