Tech leaders gather in a closed-door Senate meeting to shape AI regulation. ARM IPO could lead to a market rebound. Adobe introduces new AI offerings. Businessweek ranks best business schools. Decreased venture capital funding. Generative AI in content creation. Challenges of promoting diversity in schools. Outlook for markets in the second half. Consequences of increasing student loan payments.
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Quick takeaways
Tech and civil society leaders are shaping regulations for artificial intelligence in a closed-door Senate meeting.
The return of student loan payments may impact consumer behavior and tighten monetary policy.
In a longer-for-longer scenario, it is recommended to maintain a defensive playbook and focus on quality investments.
Deep dives
Choppy Second Half Expected in the Markets
It is predicted that the second half of 2023 will be choppy for the markets, with a range-bound performance expected. The recent CPI report, which showed higher-than-expected inflation, sets the tone for the rest of the year. The market will likely continue to be choppy until there is more clarity on key data points. The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action at the September meeting, but another rate hike is possible. The overall outlook is for a longer, slower path towards policy normalization.
Back-to-School Shopping and Consumer Behavior
Back-to-school shopping is an important indicator for the health of consumer spending and consumption trends. The shift towards more essential items and staples is noticeable, and the return of student loan payments will put pressure on consumers who are already feeling the pinch. This could have an impact on consumer behavior and potentially do the work of tightening monetary policy on behalf of the Federal Reserve.
Challenges and Underappreciated Risks of Student Loan Payments
The return of student loan payments poses a challenge to the US consumer, as it adds pressure at a time when consumers are already facing financial strains. With 70% of GDP growth tied to consumption, the potential impact on consumer spending and behavior is significant. The timing of these student loan payments, late in the economic cycle, presents a potential risk that may put the brakes on consumer spending faster than anticipated.
Positioning for a Challenging Environment
In a longer-for-longer scenario, it is recommended to lean into quality exposures, maintain a defensive playbook, and stay well-diversified. Defensive positioning does not mean holding excess cash, but rather focusing on quality investments and a well-diversified portfolio. Fixed income investments should be cautious, dialing back exposure to below investment-grade credit and leaning into investment-grade assets.
Outlook for the Second Half and Considerations for the Holidays
The outlook for the second half of the year is expected to be choppy, with the market remaining range-bound. The focus will be on data points that reveal the trajectory of inflation and growth to determine if a soft landing is possible. The return of student loan payments and potential consumer strains pose underappreciated risks. Retail sales reports and consumer behavior will play a role in understanding how the rest of the year will unfold. Positioning for a longer-for-longer scenario requires a defensive playbook and a closer look at fixed income exposures.
Bloomberg Sound On Anchor Kailey Leinz and Bloomberg Technology Reporter Anna Edgerton discuss the more than 20 tech and civil society leaders, including the chief executives of five of the 10 biggest US companies, appearing at a closed-door Senate meeting on Wednesday to shape how artificial intelligence is regulated. Gene’ Teare, Senior Data Editor at Crunchbase, talks about how the ARM IPO could set the stage for a potential IPO market rebound in 2024. Anil Chakravarthy, President of Digital Experience Business at Adobe, shares the company's newest AI offerings. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Senior Editor Dimitra Kessenides talk about the Businessweek Best Business School rankings. And we Drive to the Close with Amanda Agati, Chief Investment Officer at PNC Asset Management Group. Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Simone Foxman. Producer: Paul Brennan.