What it will take for AI to scale (energy, compute, talent)

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

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In this episode, I look at the next 24 months of AI. The technology is improving rapidly – so what could hold back widespread transformation of how we work and live? I dig into the real constraints, from electricity shortages to institutional inertia, why mid-2026 matters for enterprise AI, and why so many people remain uneasy about a technology they use every day. 

I cover: 

(00:03) Predicting AI's next two years 

(01:50) How life changing are chatbots, really? 

(03:36) Our current biggest AI constraint 

(07:58) The remarkable increase in token efficiency 

(10:43) Why mid-2026 is a crucial turning point 

(13:01) Do we actually want AI in our lives? 

(15:28) Should organizations wait to jump in? 

(16:39) How is OpenAI reckoning with Gemini? 

(18:41) The market's reaction to OpenAI's code red 

(19:32) Where will value accrue in the supply chain? 

(20:51) What's the best strategy for middling powers?

Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

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Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

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