Isabel Hardman and Chris Hopkins discuss the rise of the Reform Party in a recent poll, posing a threat to Keir Starmer and the Tories. They delve into the challenges faced by the Conservative Party in winning back voters, analyzing poll results and electoral dynamics. Strategies for Conservative candidates and tactics to win back Labour voters are also explored.
Reform party is emerging as a viable opposition to Labour, causing a challenge for Conservatives.
Conservatives struggle to win back voters from Reform due to unfulfilled promises and Farage's influence.
Deep dives
Poll Shows Reform Party Ahead of Tories and Labour Leading
A recent YouGov poll revealed that the Reform party is ahead of the Tories for the first time, with Labour showing a significant lead. This shift was anticipated by many, indicating the challenging position Tory candidates find themselves in. Despite a subsequent poll showing the Tories leading, the impact of this shift on candidates' morale is evident, highlighting the uphill battle they face in the upcoming election.
Challenges for Tories in Winning Back Reform Voters
The Tories are facing difficulties in regaining support from Reform voters, as shown by their strong allegiance to the Reform party. The failure to deliver on key campaign promises, particularly on immigration, has contributed to this challenge. Nigel Farage's influence and divisive nature pose an additional obstacle for the Conservative Party, complicating their efforts to sway voters back from Reform.
Strategic Approaches for Tory Candidates
Tory candidates are exploring various tactics to improve their standing, including highlighting their role as effective constituency MPs and opposition figures. The importance of effective communication and messaging is emphasized, with a need to address voter concerns and instill confidence. Strategies involving comparisons with Labour's economic competence and instilling a sense of urgency in voters are under consideration as the election campaign progresses.
Nigel Farage tried to claim at the start of Thursday’s TV debate that Reform was the real threat to Keir Starmer, given it has just passed the Conservatives in the polls (more on that here). Are they the new party of opposition? And what sort of tactics will the Tories use to try and claw back voters they are haemorrhaging to Reform?
Katy Balls speaks to Isabel Hardman and Chris Hopkins, director of Savanta.
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