Apple Mega-Episode W/ Daring Fireball's John Gruber: AI, Vision Pro, China, App Store & More
Feb 7, 2024
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John Gruber, author of Daring Fireball, discusses the state of Apple, including revenue declines, Apple's services business, China's impact, AI's influence on user interface, the Vision Pro, Apple's conflict with Meta, App Store fees, and potential successors to Tim Cook as Apple's CEO.
Apple needs to find new avenues for growth as iPhone sales plateau and revenue declines.
Building services has become a significant part of Apple's business and a path to future growth.
Apple's success in AI may depend on bringing together expertise from different teams within the company.
Apple's Vision Pro headset has hampered competitors and its App Store policies face legal battles and regulatory scrutiny.
Deep dives
Apple's growth challenges
Apple's growth based on iPhone sales has plateaued, as they have saturated the market. The company is facing challenges in China and declining revenue. They have tried to raise prices on newer models to boost revenue, but they need to find new avenues for growth.
The importance of services
Apple has been focusing on building their services as a path to future growth. Subscriptions to their services provide steady revenue without seasonal fluctuations. Tim Cook's emphasis on services since 2015 has paid off, and it has become a significant part of Apple's business.
The future of AI for Apple
AI is an important area for Apple's future, despite mixed reviews of their voice assistant Siri. While the potential benefits are promising, it is challenging to predict the advancements and ultimate impact of AI. Apple's success in AI may depend on their ability to bring together expertise from different teams within the company.
The uncertainty of Apple's car project
Apple's car project, known as Project Titan, remains shrouded in secrecy and uncertainty. While there are indications that Apple has been testing autonomous vehicles, the future of their car project is still unknown. The challenges of achieving full autonomy and the unusual nature of manufacturing a car make it a complex endeavor for Apple.
The Influence of Apple on Meta
The release of Apple's Vision Pro headset has legitimized Meta's efforts in the AR/VR space and hampered competitors like Snapchat. By keeping Apple Messages exclusive to iPhones, Apple has created an opportunity for cross-platform messaging apps like WhatsApp to gain traction.
Apple's App Store Policies
Apple's insistence on charging 30% fees and enforcing anti-steering rules in the App Store has led to legal battles with companies like Epic and regulatory scrutiny in Europe. Critics argue that these policies could backfire and result in negative consequences for Apple's app ecosystem.
Succession Planning at Apple
While it is unclear who would succeed Tim Cook as CEO of Apple, Jeff Williams, the current COO, might be a potential candidate in an emergency scenario. However, his age and the lack of a clearly designated successor suggest that Apple's leadership bench does not currently have a clear frontrunner.
John Gruber is the author of Daring Fireball. He joins Big Technology Podcast for a mega episode on the state of Apple. We cover: 1) The company's vibe amid revenue declines 2) The impact of its services business 3) Its position in China 4) How AI might change the user interface of computing 5) Can Apple keep up with the changes if we move beyond the screen 6) Gruber's reaction to the Vision Pro 7) The stakes of Apple's Vision Pro bet 8) Apple conflict with Meta and who is getting the best of it 9) Is Apple too attached to its App Store fees 10) Who might succeed Tim Cook?
This is the longest episode in Big Technology Podcast history. But also a masterclass from Gruber on the state of a company he's covered for two decades. Enjoy!
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