In Moscow's Shadows In Moscow's Shadows 223: After Putin, Who... or What?
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Nov 9, 2025 Dive into the complex world of post-Putin succession. Explore the potential archetypes of future leaders, from technocratic consensus builders to managerial figures balancing elite interests. Discuss the risks of a younger, more aggressive successor and the chaotic scenarios that could unfold, including coups and regional breakaways. Gain insights into how generational shifts in the elite may shape this power transition. A thought-provoking analysis on the unpredictability of Russia's political landscape.
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Succession Has Been Made Taboo
- Succession is taboo under Putin and cannot be openly debated without undermining his rule and making him a lame duck.
- This taboo means elites plan quietly, increasing uncertainty and bargaining behind the scenes.
Successor Emerges From Coalitions
- A post-Putin successor will likely emerge from elite negotiation and coalition-building rather than a single heir apparent.
- Coalitions push politics toward the centre and create compromise successors who secure elite buy-in.
Four Archetypes Define Possible Successors
- Likely successor archetypes cluster into four types: technocratic patriarch, chairman/figurehead, long-term redeveloper, and pseudo-silovic.
- Each archetype reflects elite priorities at succession: stability, mediation, reconstruction, or security credibility.
