The Compound and Friends

Fidelity’s Quant Boss Reveals Her Top 3 “Desert Island” Stock Market Indicators

7 snips
Oct 5, 2025
Guest
Denise Chisholm
Denise Chisholm, Director of Quantitative Market Strategy at Fidelity, shares her insights on stock market indicators. She explains why median earnings growth is crucial for market health. Denise delves into credit spreads, illustrating their predictive power for equity gains. She also discusses valuation spreads, highlighting optimal buying opportunities during market fear. Alongside the hosts, she explores investor behavior during declines and the implications of Fed policy on growth and inflation. It's a deep dive into the metrics that matter most!
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INSIGHT

Combine Data With Practitioner Memory

  • Talking to seasoned investors adds nuance that raw historical data alone cannot provide.
  • Denise uses both lived experience and data to avoid mistaking noise for signal.
INSIGHT

Patterns Trump Exact Analogs

  • Historical patterns often repeat even when details differ, so look for signal vs. noise.
  • Denise warns that commonly repeated market narratives are often false despite sounding convincing.
ADVICE

Quantify Shocks, Then Judge Impact

  • Do the math on shocks like tariffs rather than assuming headline effects will tip the economy.
  • Check offsets (e.g., lower oil) before concluding a shock will cause recession.
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