Stratechery Elon Dreams and Bitter Lessons
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Oct 15, 2024 Richard Bowles, a former executive at Arianespace, shares deep insights into the competitive space launch industry. He discusses how SpaceX's innovative, cost-effective launch options have disrupted traditional players like Arianespace. The conversation dives into SpaceX's significant price reductions and the future of space exploration. Bowles also highlights the critical lessons from decades of AI research, focusing on the importance of computational power over human techniques, and contrasts Tesla's journey in autonomous vehicles with competitors like Waymo.
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SpaceX's Dream
- In 2013, Arianespace executive Richard Bowles dismissed SpaceX's $15 million launch cost as a dream.
- He believed reusability was unrealistic and that the market would eventually wake up to reality.
Dream Realized
- SpaceX achieved the $15 million launch cost, proving Bowles wrong.
- However, they charge customers more due to lack of competition.
Cheapness Drives Scale
- Cheapness drives scale, which further reduces costs, creating new markets.
- SpaceX's dream of Mars fuels innovation and cost reduction in space travel.