The Long View Cody Garrett and Sean Mullaney: ‘For Most Americans, You’re Going to Pay Less Tax in Retirement’
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Jan 20, 2026 
Cody Garrett, a certified financial planner and founder of Measure Twice Money, teams up with Sean Mullaney, a CPA and tax expert. They tackle early retirement strategies and how most Americans may actually pay less tax in retirement. Discussions include the limitations of the 4% withdrawal rule, the importance of strategic tax planning, and the benefits of taxable accounts for flexibility. They debunk fear-based tax myths while advising on optimal Roth conversions and drawdown strategies for retirees. Practical insights abound for anyone looking to navigate retirement finances.
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Early Retirement Defined As Pre‑Medicare
- Early retirement in the book is defined as retiring before Medicare eligibility, typically before age 65.
- Cody and Sean say this definition captures a large share of retirees and frames unique tax challenges for pre-65 drawdown planning.
Use 4% As A Starting Point
- Treat the 4% rule as a rule of thumb and include variable income sources like Social Security and pensions in planning.
- Use projection tools and risk‑based guardrails rather than blindly treating 4% as fixed.
Question 100% Monte Carlo Claims
- High Monte Carlo success rates can falsely justify overspending because software may still show 100% success after spending increases.
- Cody recommends checking thresholds (99%, 90%, 80%) and planning for adjustments, not absolute certainty.
