Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Stephanie Pomboy: Unemployment Rate To Spike In 2026?
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Dec 17, 2025 
Stephanie Pomboy, a macro analyst and founder of MacroMavens, dives deep into the precarious state of the economy. She discusses alarming funding needs within the AI sector and the fierce competition for capital among various entities. Stephanie provides insights on rising unemployment and signals indicating that the labor market may be overstated. The conversation also touches on the implications of recent Fed moves, corporate bankruptcies, and the resilience of precious metals amidst market turbulence. A thought-provoking analysis you won't want to miss!
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Fed Reserve Moves Look Like QE
- The Fed's recent reserve operations amount to QE under a different name and signal growing urgency in financing plumbing.
- Pomboy sees this as a major policy shift and a prelude to larger balance-sheet expansion if stress continues.
Labor Market Weakness Is Broader Than It Looks
- The unemployment rate rise (to ~4.6%) may already understate labor weakness once payroll overstatements are adjusted.
- Pomboy and Adam flag that labor and profit distributions are skewed toward hyperscalers, masking broad weakness.
Earnings Are Top-Heavy, Not Economy-Wide
- Corporate profit strength is concentrated in a handful of hyperscalers, distorting aggregate signals.
- Pomboy points to accelerating bankruptcies and weak employment for most firms as evidence the averages mislead.