Stephanie Pomboy: Unemployment Rate To Spike In 2026?

34 snips

Dec 17, 2025

Stephanie Pomboy, a macro analyst and founder of MacroMavens, dives deep into the precarious state of the economy. She discusses alarming funding needs within the AI sector and the fierce competition for capital among various entities. Stephanie provides insights on rising unemployment and signals indicating that the labor market may be overstated. The conversation also touches on the implications of recent Fed moves, corporate bankruptcies, and the resilience of precious metals amidst market turbulence. A thought-provoking analysis you won't want to miss!

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

AI Will Intensify Capital Competition

AI capex will materially increase corporate borrowing needs and compete for capital with governments and other firms.
Stephanie Pomboy warns this could crowd out BBB-rated firms and marginal borrowers as capital chases high-quality hyperscalers.

INSIGHT

Public Debt Adds To Crowding-Out Risk

Public sector financing needs (roughly $7 trillion) plus AI and corporate rollovers create unprecedented supply of debt.
Pomboy highlights the risk that investors prefer lending to large tech or the government, leaving mid-grade corporates stranded.

INSIGHT

Hedge Funds Are Financing Deficits Now

Hedge funds have become major, leveraged buyers of Treasuries via basis trades, replacing foreign central bank demand.
Pomboy warns this makes Treasury financing more fragile and reliant on fickle, leverage-driven players.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returned for a livestream this morning.In it, we discussed the gargantuan debt financing needs of the AI sector and how the competition for funds across public & private companies AND the federal government is highly likely to create undesirable trade-offs.We also talked about the recent Fed moves and how they signal all is not well in the financial plumbing, the rising unemployment rate, whether the current bull run in the precious metals is likely to continues, and Stephanie’s thoughts on the energy sector.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comFollow Stephanie’s work at https://macromavens.com/Or on X at @spomboy_____________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.