Real Vision: Finance & Investing
The End of China as We Know It?
Nov 26, 2023
George Magnus, a distinguished economist and China Centre research associate at Oxford University, discusses critical junctures in China's economy, including real estate turbulence, demographic woes, and new global trade strategies. They explore China's transition into a new business model and its impact on the Chinese economy. They also examine China's rise as a global car exporter, the impact of the trade war on China-West trade patterns, the early days of crypto, the impact of demographics on inflation in China, and potential solutions for China's debt burden.
58:29
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Quick takeaways
- China's real estate sector is facing challenges and will likely need to shrink in the next decade, presenting a key question of how it will be managed.
- China's demographic challenges, including low birth rates and an aging population, highlight the need for economic reforms to address these issues and ensure sustainable growth.
Deep dives
China's Transition to a New Business Model
China is undergoing a transition from its previous economic model, with a shift in focus and uncertain future. The country acknowledges the need for change, but political obstacles make it difficult to implement new reforms. The book 'Red Flags: Why China Is in Jeopardy' explores the challenges and uncertainties China faces in this transition period. The real estate sector plays a significant role in China's economic model, but it has its challenges, such as oversupply and declining investment. The sector will likely need to shrink in the next decade, and how this is managed remains a key question.
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