The KE Report Marc Chandler - Inflation’s Next Move, Fed Cuts, Dollar Trend & What to Watch
Aug 15, 2025
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of Marc to Market, brings insightful analysis on recent inflation data. He discusses the Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market over inflation trends and the misconceptions around rate cuts. Chandler highlights the resilience in retail sales, which challenges aggressive cut expectations, while the U.S. dollar's downtrend persists. He also sheds light on upcoming macro catalysts that could alter September's policy landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Rising Inflation May Be Transient
- Inflation is moving higher now, with CPI core above 3% and PPI surprising to the upside.
- Marc Chandler warns the key question is whether those price moves will be sustained or are one-off effects from tariffs.
Unemployment, Not Payrolls, Drives Fed
- Fed decisions will lean more on labor-market balance (unemployment) than on payroll counts alone.
- Chandler says unemployment better captures supply and demand in labor and will drive Fed action more than monthly payroll noise.
Use Fed Funds Futures As Probabilities
- Treat Fed Funds futures as probabilistic signals, not certainties.
- Use them to gauge market views but expect the market to overreact and then reconverge with the Fed over time.