Offline with Jon Favreau Have the Democrats Decided to Win?
Nov 8, 2025
Simon Bazelon, a Democratic public opinion researcher and author of 'Deciding to Win,' shares insights from his extensive polling on the party's strategies. He discusses how Democrats shifted focus from economic issues to identity politics after 2016, potentially alienating median voters. Bazelon highlights the misleading nature of some issue polls and emphasizes the preference for targeted economic policies over universal ones. He also warns that Democrats must regain voter trust and balance excitement for their base with electability to succeed in future elections.
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Platform Shift Away From Economic Focus
- The Democratic Party platform shifted toward identity and climate language while mentions of economy and middle class fell sharply.
- This change signals elites reprioritized issues away from voters' top economic concerns.
Elite Voter Priority Divergence
- College-educated Democratic elites prioritize climate, voting rights, and student loans far more than swing or working-class voters.
- That divergence explains why party messaging can feel out of step with median voter priorities.
Issue Polling Often Overstates Support
- Conventional issue polling often overstates support due to survey framing and acquiescence bias.
- Comparative ballots and two-sided arguments yield much lower, more realistic support levels.