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Uncharted with Hannah Fry
10. Devil in the Detail
Oct 2, 2023
Thomas Herndon, a student who challenged economic status quo, uncovers errors in a prominent economic paper, questioning the correlation between debt levels and economic growth. His discovery shakes the intellectual foundations of a global movement and sparks debates on flawed economic policies.
14:44
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Quick takeaways
- Thomas Herndon debunked the 90% debt threshold causing economic collapse by revealing errors in Reinhart-Rogoff's study.
- The incident highlights the importance of critical data analysis in economic research and policy-making.
Deep dives
Discovery of Error in Economic Data Analysis
Thomas Herndon, a grad student, discovers a fundamental error in a well-known paper by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff regarding the impact of high levels of national debt on economic growth. Through meticulous analysis, he realizes that key data from several countries were omitted, leading to misleading conclusions. By adjusting the calculations, the supposed 90% debt threshold causing economic collapse is debunked, revealing that countries actually grow under high debt levels, challenging prevailing economic beliefs.
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Discover
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode