Prediction Markets on AI Events

Metaculus is a forecasting platform that aggregates quantitative predictions of future events, providing insight into potential AI futures. One of the interesting aspects of AI is the difficulty in accurately predicting its development and progress. Metaculus offers prediction markets on various AI topics, such as AGI outcomes, regulation of AI, AI safety, and more. These markets allow participants to make predictions based on specific resolution criteria and probability distributions. For example, one prediction market asks if an Elon Musk-funded AI lab will release a large language model (LLM) before 2024. The community's aggregate prediction shows evolving expectations over time.