Astral Codex Ten Podcast ACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026
Jan 10, 2026
Dive into an exciting prediction contest hosted on Metaculus, where community-sourced questions cover a range of topics including U.S. politics, AI, and international affairs. Participants can make forecasts until January 17, when rankings for a $10,000 prize pool will be set. Newcomers and seasoned forecasters are encouraged to join, and even bot accounts can be created for additional participation. Celebrate the winners of the best question submissions and get ready to sharpen your forecasting skills!
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Community-Sourced Forecasting Contest
- The ACX/Metaculus contest sources all questions from ACX readers and spans politics, AI, international affairs, and culture.
- Forecasts submitted by Jan 17 at 11:59 PM PT determine contest rankings and prize allocation.
Submit Forecasts Before The Deadline
- Submit your Metaculus predictions by January 17th at 11:59 PM Pacific Time to count for the contest.
- You can continue updating forecasts later but only pre-deadline snapshots affect contest rankings and prizes.
Understand Snapshot Rules
- Take a snapshot of your standing forecasts before the deadline since that snapshot decides contest rankings.
- Continue updating after Jan 17 for site leaderboards but expect no effect on contest prize allocation.