#1208 Darius Dale | Bitcoin Is Falling Because Of China & Japan?
Jun 6, 2023
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Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of 42Macro, joins Anthony Pompleano to discuss the global liquidity cycle with a focus on China and Japan. They explore the correlation between liquidity, stocks, and Bitcoin in both markets, while analyzing the guidance provided by central banks and its implications on future liquidity.
Understanding the liquidity cycles of China and Japan is crucial for interpreting global liquidity and its impact on assets like Bitcoin.
Both China and Japan are experiencing potential declines in their liquidity cycles, which could have ramifications for the global liquidity proxy and asset prices.
Deep dives
Chinese Liquidity Cycle and Bitcoin
The conversation with Darius Dale focuses on the global liquidity cycle, particularly in China and Japan. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the liquidity cycles of these countries as they are major contributors to the global liquidity proxy. In relation to China, the liquidity cycle is closely linked to the Chinese stock market and the price of Bitcoin. The recent data indicates a decline in liquidity, which is unlikely to be reversed in the near term due to the disappointing growth recovery in China. While another wave of liquidity may come eventually, recent measures implemented by the Chinese government suggest that it may not happen for a few months.
Public Sector Liquidity Provision in China
The conversation delves into the concept of public sector liquidity provision and its importance in China. While there is often a focus on central bank liquidity, it is crucial to consider the private sector liquidity component as well. In the case of China, the analysis shows a possible decline in the liquidity provided by the public sector, which includes commercial banks. This is supported by leading indicators, such as the Chinese stock market, suggesting that the global liquidity proxy in China may also decline in the coming months.
Japan's Liquidity Cycle and Link to Bitcoin
The conversation also explores the liquidity cycle in Japan and its connection to Bitcoin. Similar to China, Japan's liquidity cycle is closely correlated with Bitcoin's price movement. The analysis reveals a flat or declining liquidity impulse in Japan over the past few months, indicating a potential decrease in the global liquidity matrix constructed by Japan. Leading indicators, such as inflation, further suggest a possible downward trend in liquidity over the next three to six months. These findings contribute to the overall understanding of global liquidity and its impact on Bitcoin and other assets.
Darius Dale is the founder & CEO of 42Macro, they are one of the best sources of information I have found across asset classes, markets, and Wall Street. In this conversation, we talk about the global liquidity cycle, specifically focusing in on China & Japan -- what is going on with that monetary policy, their contribution to global liquidity, and how certain assets are responding.
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Pomp writes a daily letter to over 235,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/
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