Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Immaculate Disinflation?
Nov 30, 2023
Edward Snowden, Benedict Evans, and Balaji Srinivasan discuss 'immaculate disinflation' and market positioning. They explore inflation readings, labor market stability, recession indicators, Fed meeting expectations, and impact of Europe's stability on currency market. They also highlight the importance of adapting to AI era in democratic countries.
42:34
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Quick takeaways
- Discretionary investors are currently very overweight in the market, indicating a high probability of a near-term correction.
- The core PC deflator and super core PC deflator are both showing deceleration, suggesting a continued downward momentum in inflation.
Deep dives
Positioning Model Indicates Overweight Market
Based on an analysis of the AAII bull's bears surveys, discretionary investors are currently very overweight in the market, with bulls in the 86th percentile, and bears in the 10th percentile. This indicates a 91st percentile spread, suggesting a high probability of a near-term correction. While this may not necessarily signal the end of the bull market, it does raise concerns about market positioning and the potential for a correction.
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