2024 In Review, 2025 Predictions — With Casey Newton
Jan 1, 2025
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Casey Newton, the savvy author of Platformer and co-host of Hard Fork, dives deep into the tech landscape of 2024 and forecasts for 2025. He discusses the burgeoning influence of AI agents, as well as the fierce rivalry between Google and OpenAI. The conversation also touches on the potential impacts of a TikTok ban and political shifts on tech policies. Additionally, Newton speculates on Apple's possible acquisition of Snap and the future of self-driving cars and quantum computing. Tune in for a fascinating perspective on our digital future!
2024 showcased significant advancements in AI technologies, but public challenges in utilization raised questions about their practical return on investment.
Predictions for 2025 indicate a focus on AI agents and their autonomy, emphasizing concerns over identifying practical use cases for these technologies.
Antitrust issues in big tech will evolve alongside political changes, potentially reshaping market competition and impacting platforms like TikTok and Meta.
Deep dives
Reflection on 2024's Technological Progress
2024 was a notable year for technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI). The widespread adoption of AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, showcased significant progress, with OpenAI reporting 300 million users weekly. However, the general public still struggled to fully utilize these innovations, leading to ongoing discussions about their return on investment. While many hailed the advancements as significant, skepticism about their practical applications highlighted the challenges that remain in harnessing AI for wider use.
Expectations and Predictions for AI in 2025
Anticipating developments in 2025, the conversation hinted at a focus on AI agents, a new category of technology utilizing AI in more autonomous capabilities. Initial demos from companies like Anthropic and Google revealed promising potential, albeit with a learning curve where the technology often struggled with basic functions. Despite expectations for linear progress rather than groundbreaking leaps, the capability to automate tasks within companies could lead to meaningful advancements. However, there remained concerns about whether the initial hype surrounding AI agents would diminish due to challenges in identifying practical use cases.
Antitrust Perspectives and Shift in Leadership
The 2025 landscape for antitrust issues is shaped by expectations surrounding the new administration and its approach to big tech regulations. Potential changes could lead to a greater focus on acquisitions that were previously hindered over the past few years, as a new head of the FTC will bring in different priorities. Speculation around TikTok's future and its impact on competitors like Meta suggests a dynamic shift in market shares that could reshape the social media landscape. As the year progresses, the repercussions of political decisions on these companies and their strategies will likely play a significant role in shaping industry competition.
Innovations in Quantum Computing and Self-Driving Technology
2024 marked a pivotal year in quantum computing, with advances like new quantum chips demonstrating the potential for future applications, albeit still in their infancy. The technical complexities highlight a belief that substantial breakthroughs may not be imminent but indicate a path for future exploration. Similarly, self-driving technology, particularly with Waymo leading the charge, is beginning to gain mainstream acceptance as expanded service areas promise greater accessibility for users. The combination of improved user experiences and technological refinement positions self-driving cars as a potentially transformative component of transportation in 2025.
The Future of Brain-Computer Interfaces and Meta's Position
Predictions for 2025 include significant advancements in brain-computer interfaces, with companies like Neuralink gearing up for potentially transformative outcomes through patient trials. While early experiences show promise, concerns exist regarding the long-term viability and reliability of such technologies. In the competitive realm of social media, the fate of platforms like Snap rests on external factors like the potential ban of TikTok, which would significantly alter market dynamics in favor of Meta. The interplay between technological innovations and regulatory decisions will create an unpredictable yet exciting narrative as the year unfolds.
Casey Newton is the author of Platformer and co-host of Hard Fork. He joins Big Technology Podcast for our annual predictions episode. Tune in to hear Newton analyze 2024's major developments in AI, debate whether AI agents will take off in 2025, and explore what might happen to companies like Apple, Google, and OpenAI in the coming year. We also cover quantum computing breakthroughs, self-driving car expansion, and what a potential Trump presidency could mean for tech antitrust. Hit play for an insightful look at where technology is headed in 2025.
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