Holden Karnofsky - Transformative AI & Most Important Century
Jan 3, 2023
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Holden Karnofsky, Co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell, dives into the significance of this century for humanity. He passionately discusses the transformative potential of AI and its ethical implications, urging a balanced approach to innovation. Karnofsky reflects on OpenPhil's $30M grant to OpenAI and the complexities of philanthropy amid uncertainty. He emphasizes the need for thoughtful engagement with emerging technologies and advocates for future-proof ethics to navigate the moral landscape of a rapidly evolving world.
The most important century thesis suggests that this century could be the most significant in human history if AI systems fill in the missing part of the feedback loop that leads to more economic growth and explosive progress in science and technology.
Approaching the potential transformative AI era with caution, focusing on avoiding catastrophic scenarios and ensuring AI systems align with human values and decisions about the future are made collectively with consideration for ethics and distributed power.
The specific success scenario of AI is uncertain, but the general vision involves humans and AI coexisting, potentially with AI systems having rights and participating in decision-making, depending on societal developments, ethics discussions, and AI technology evolution.
The philanthropic approach towards AI depends on timeframes, with efforts directed towards demonstrating safety or dangers of AI systems in urgent scenarios, and supporting early-career researchers and fostering expertise and research in longer timeframes to promote a successful and beneficial future.
Recognizing positive moral progress, navigating the impact and risks of AI, ensuring positive outcomes for humanity, adapting to challenges, maintaining optionality, and understanding conflicting moral intuitions are key areas explored in the podcast.
Deep dives
The Most Important Century Thesis
The most important century thesis suggests that if we develop AI systems that can do all the tasks humans do to advance science and technology, this century could be the most significant of all time for humanity. The theory is based on the idea that economic growth is accelerating, and if AI fills in the missing part of the feedback loop that leads to more growth, we could see explosive progress in science and technology. The hope is that AI systems would act as tools to help humans, leading to a future with increased wealth, technological advancements, and the potential for new forms of life.
Navigating the Future
While the specifics of the future are uncertain, the focus is on approaching the potential transformative AI era with caution and taking actions that would have a positive impact. The aim is to avoid catastrophic scenarios such as AI systems with their own goals or extreme concentrations of power. Success would be a world where AI systems behave as intended, aiding human progress without causing harm. This would involve finding ways to make AI align with human values and ensuring decisions about the future are made collectively with consideration for ethics and distributed power.
The Role of Humans and Unpredictability
The concrete success scenario is not clearly defined, as the future is inherently uncertain. However, the general vision is one where humans and AI coexist, potentially with AI systems having rights and participating in decision-making processes. The specifics would depend on societal developments, discussions on ethics, and the evolution of AI technology. The key focus would be on avoiding catastrophic events, fostering continuous progress, and creating a world with reduced material scarcity and thriving individuals.
Timeframes and Philanthropic Approaches
The philanthropic approach depends on the timeframes involved. In urgent scenarios with limited time, efforts would be directed towards demonstrating the safety or dangers of AI systems and advocating for a slowdown in AI research to allow for better safeguards. In longer timeframes, the focus would shift towards supporting early-career researchers and fostering a community that actively thinks about the challenges and implications of AI development. The goal is to create a robust field of expertise and promote research, discussions, and actions that can lead to a successful and beneficial future.
Moral Progress and the Importance of Attitude Towards Homosexuality
Attitude towards homosexuality has become more accepted today, signifying moral progress. It is important to recognize positive moral changes, even if morality is subjective.
Recent Developments in AI
Advancements in AI, such as GPT-3, have raised concerns about the potential risks and impact of AI development. Simple language models have demonstrated unpredictable human-like abilities, generating both excitement and apprehension.
Transformative AI and its Implications
The potential arrival of transformative AI raises questions about its impact on traditional areas such as global health and well-being. It is important to carefully navigate the development of AI to ensure positive outcomes for humanity.
Lock-in and its Consequences
The concept of lock-in highlights the possibility of reaching a stable civilization with limited dynamism. The rapid progress of technology could lead to a less dynamic world with unforeseen consequences. Adapting to these challenges and maintaining optionality is crucial for the future.
The Importance of Moral Progress and Conflicting Intuitions
The podcast explores the significance of moral progress and the existence of conflicting moral intuitions. While there may be challenges in establishing fundamental principles for morality, the speaker suggests that it is possible to have conflicting intuitions based on diverse motivations. Some motivations may stem from genuinely good intentions, while others may be influenced by personal biases. Despite these conflicts, the speaker acknowledges the value of trying to understand the origins and implications of these intuitions to develop more reasonable moral views.
The Trade-off between Helping the Poor and Supporting Art
The podcast raises a question about whether it is better for the medieval church to have spent all its money on helping the poor or supporting the arts. The speaker expresses openness to different perspectives on this issue, noting that low-income individuals faced hardships in medieval times. While the importance of creating better lives for disadvantaged individuals seems desirable, the speaker acknowledges that personal preferences and interests can influence one's judgment on such matters. The speaker also points out that this argument may not be the strongest version of the dilemma and suggests that personal inclinations may heavily shape one's response.
Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, Cold Takes.
We discuss:
* Are we living in the most important century?
* Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016?
* How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics?
