Guest Michael Cox and others discuss Arsenal's need for a clinical striker, the evolving role of strikers in football, Arsenal's wastefulness in front of goal, and the physical profile of Premier League number nines.
Arsenal's struggles in front of goal cannot be solely attributed to the lack of a clinical striker, as their chance creation numbers and overall attacking play have been strong.
The role of the number 9 in football has evolved to include contributing in all aspects of the game, not just scoring goals, with a focus on physicality, pressing, and versatility in movement.
The evaluation of a striker's performance should consider more than just their goal-scoring ability, recognizing the complex dynamics of modern football and the overall contribution they make to the team.
Deep dives
Arsenal's finishing problems go beyond the need for a clinical striker
Arsenal's recent struggles in front of goal cannot be solely attributed to the lack of a clinical striker. Although there has been criticism that they need to sign a proven goal scorer in January, their chance creation numbers and overall attacking play have been strong. The team excels in high pressing and creating scoring opportunities through their defensive work. Research shows that the impact of a player's finishing skill is relatively small compared to other factors like the quality of the shot. Arsenal's wastefulness in front of goal is also amplified by the crucial moments in which they miss chances. The team's defensive strengths and tight defensive foundation should also be considered when evaluating their attacking performance.
The changing role of the number 9 in modern football
The role of the number 9 in football has evolved significantly. Elite managers now expect their number 9s to contribute in all aspects of the game, not just scoring goals. The physical profile of a Premier League number 9 has become more uniform, with an emphasis on upper body strength and the ability to disrupt defenders. Strikers are now tasked with leading the press, creating spaces for teammates, and being versatile in their movement. The expectation for clinical finishing has also increased, but research shows that finishing skill is just one factor in a striker's overall performance. Other factors like shot clarity and shot pressure play a significant role as well.
The influence of fan expectations and cognitive biases
Fans often have high expectations for strikers in terms of their finishing ability, and there can be a cognitive bias towards focusing more on missed chances rather than goals scored. The emotional side of football and the desire for moments of celebration can overshadow the analytical evaluation of a player's performance. The pressure on strikers to score goals remains high, especially given the significant proportion of transfer fees spent on forwards compared to other positions. However, it is important to consider the overall contribution of a striker beyond just goals and recognize the complex dynamics at play in modern football.
Strikers' overperformance and underperformance in relation to expected goals
The analysis of strikers' overperformance and underperformance in relation to expected goals (XG) can shed light on their finishing abilities. Some strikers consistently overperform their XG, scoring more goals than expected based on the quality of their chances. Others may underperform their XG, missing higher-quality chances that could have resulted in more goals. However, it is crucial to note that finishing skill is just one aspect of a striker's overall performance, and the ability to get into good positions and contribute in other ways should also be considered.
The value of goals and the context of a striker's performance
The value of goals should be considered in the context of the overall team performance and the types of chances created. Factors like the quality of shots, the ability to create space for teammates, and the team's defensive strength can all contribute to a striker's overall impact. While goals are crucial, they are not the sole indicator of a striker's performance, and a well-rounded contribution should also be recognized. Overall, a balanced approach that considers various aspects of a striker's game can provide a more comprehensive evaluation of their performance.
Since Arsenal were dumped out of the FA Cup, the prevailing 'narrative' has been their desperate need to sign a more clinical goalscorer in the January transfer window... But does a number 9 who could fulfil all the requirements of an Arsenal striker even exist?
Host Ali Maxwell is joined by The Athletic's Michael Cox, Mark Carey & Liam Tharme - for their first podcast of 2024 - to explore the 'unrealistic' expectations on the modern-day Premier League forward.
How would an iconic frontman like Didier Drogba be judged today, is it more sustainable to have a strong finisher or to keep creating high quality chances and do goalscorers even play upfront anymore!?