The Decibel High-stakes trade talks begin as Trump tariffs persist
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Sep 25, 2025 Mark Rendell, an economic reporter for The Globe and Mail, dives into the high-stakes trade talks surrounding the USMCA review. He explains the six-year review process and what’s at stake for Canada, including the challenges posed by Trump’s tariffs. Mark outlines potential outcomes like renewal or termination and discusses how uncertainty is freezing Canadian investments. Key issues include supply management and the need for Canada and Mexico to collaborate against US demands. Can they secure a tariff-free deal? This and more in an insightful conversation!
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USMCA Review Lands In Turbulent Moment
- The USMCA six-year review clause forces a high-stakes renegotiation amid Trump's tariff spree.
- Formal negotiations replace informal talks and could reshape continental trade rules.
Three Possible Paths For The Deal
- The review has three outcomes: 16-year renewal, annual reviews for ten years, or termination with six months' notice.
- The U.S. will largely drive whether this becomes a tweak or a full renegotiation.
USMCA Carve-Out Is A Critical Shield
- USMCA shields most Canadian exports from Trump's tariffs via a carve-out for compliant goods.
- If the deal collapses, average tariffs could jump from ~5.5% to around 35%, devastating trade flows.