The Last Line of Defense Are the United States and Venezuela on the Brink of War?
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Dec 4, 2025 Juan Cruz, a former U.S. Intelligence Community official, shares his insights on the escalating crisis in Venezuela. He discusses the complexities of U.S. objectives in removing Maduro and the challenges posed by Venezuela's role as a hub for drug trafficking. Cruz highlights the risks associated with U.S. military involvement and the asymmetrical threats from local militias and guerrillas. He also analyzes the limitations of foreign support from countries like Cuba and Russia, emphasizing the need for U.S. military readiness for potential jungle warfare.
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Administration Focuses On Maduro's Removal
- President Biden focuses on the endgame: removing Maduro rather than nation-building or immediate elections.
- The administration balances risks like migration and long wars against achieving the dictator's defenestration.
Venezuela As A Transshipment Hub
- Venezuela serves largely as a transshipment point rather than a production center for cocaine.
- Much Venezuelan-trafficked drugs route to the Caribbean, Western Africa, Europe, or through Central America to North America.
Military Presence Deters But Shifts Trafficking
- U.S. military presence in the region exerts a dissuasive effect on traffickers and creates balloon-effects.
- When pressure rises in one route, traffickers shift routes or modes, creating persistent cat-and-mouse dynamics.