The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#64 Mike Wolfson | What I Got Wrong (And Right!) In 2025
Dec 18, 2025
In this discussion, Mike Wolfson, managing director at Newmark, dives into the multifamily capital markets landscape and contrasts his 2025 predictions with reality, highlighting strong demand yet unexpected rent growth outcomes. He elaborates on robust debt originations and the shift of institutional investment toward the Midwest, spurred by recent market dynamics. The conversation also touches on buyer preferences for newer properties and the intriguing interplay between cap rates and interest rates as they explore the future of investments.
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Apartment Starts Have Stabilized
- Apartment starts appear to have bottomed around ten-year lows near ~235k units annually.
- Jay Parsons notes starts leveled off in 2025 and likely remain steady into 2026.
Absorption Stayed Surprisingly Strong
- Apartment demand (net absorption) remained strong in 2025 and was among the best years on record.
- Jay Parsons says absorption stayed high and only ticked down slightly from 2024.
Wage Growth Helped Affordability
- Wage growth outpaced rent growth in 2025, improving affordability for renters.
- Jay Parsons cites Atlanta Fed wage tracker showing ~4.1% wage growth vs near-zero apartment rent growth.