Chris Vermeulen Warns: One Last S&P Rally, Then a 50 % Crash Like 2008

May 6, 2025

Chris Vermeulen, a technical analyst from The Technical Traders, provides a stark warning about the S&P 500. He predicts a final rally to around 5,950 before a potential 30-50% crash, mirroring the 2008 crisis. Vermeulen discusses how major companies like Apple and Nvidia are showing sell signals and the risks posed to retail investors. He also highlights the bullish potential for gold, forecasting it could soar to $3,750, while oil's decline serves as a recession indicator. Bitcoin's future remains uncertain as market dynamics shift.

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INSIGHT

S&P Dead Cat Bounce Ahead

The S&P 500 is forming a dead cat bounce likely topping near 5950 before a major decline.
A short squeeze could push it slightly higher by squeezing out pessimistic investors.

INSIGHT

S&P to Crash After 4900 Breach

The S&P 500 will likely breach its recent low of 4900 and suffer a 30-50% drop.
Economic slowdowns due to tariffs and transportation issues are key drivers of this collapse.

INSIGHT

Institutions Sell Into Retail Bullishness

Institutions are selling into strength while retail investors are drawn in by rallies.
This creates exit liquidity for institutions before the market rolls over again.

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Is Wall Street repeating 2008? The Technical Traders’ Chris Vermeulen tells James Connor the S&P 500 could pop to 5,950 in a final “exit-liquidity” squeeze before plunging 30-50% in a stage-four bear market. Institutions are dumping on retail while freight volumes collapse, tariffs bite, and oil flashes recession. Yet, it’s not all bearish, as Chris also sees gold breaking toward $3,750 once the shake-out is done.

Key Topics:

Exact chart levels Chris is watching for the crash trigger
Why this is the “final leg” before a crash, mirroring 2008’s stage-four breakdown
How Apple, Nvidia, and Palantir are flashing sell signals now
Why retail investors are being used as exit liquidity
The bullish setup in gold and silver, and the short-term correction ahead
How oil’s collapse confirms recession signals
Chris’s contrarian call on the U.S. dollar and its surprising strength in downturns
Bitcoin’s next move if risk assets roll over, and why MicroStrategy is in the crosshairs

Chapters:
1:51 – Is 5,600 the S&P’s Danger Zone?

3:52 – Could 5,950 Spark a Short Squeeze?

5:04 – Will 4,900 Be Breached Next?

6:18 – Nasdaq Run-Up or Fake-Out?

9:08 – Apple’s Weak Numbers: Buyback Lifeline?

11:41 – Siri’s Fail and Apple’s Future

12:39 – Buffett Steps Aside: Berkshire After Buffett

16:08 – Nvidia’s Parabolic Rise: Bubble Alert?

17:53 – Palantir’s Wild Spike—Momentum or Madness?

19:19 – MicroStrategy: Bitcoin Proxy Plays

20:26 – Bitcoin vs. Bear Market—Can It Outperform?

24:09 – Gold Surge: Peak or Pause?

28:04 – Silver’s Shot at $38?

30:52 – Oil Slump Flags Economic Slowdown

39:32 – TLT & Yields: Bond Market Warning

42:18 – King Dollar Ready for a Comeback?

44:31 – Key Takeaways & Next Moves

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