Bloomberg Businessweek Stocks Suffer Worst Meltdown Since Covid
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Apr 4, 2025 Peter Berezin, the Chief Global Investment Strategist at BCA Research, shares insights on the stock market's worst decline since the pandemic, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade wars. Liz McCormick, Bloomberg's Chief Correspondent for Global Macro Markets, provides an analysis of the bond market's reaction to economic policies and the implications for investor confidence. They discuss strategies for navigating these turbulent times, the complexities of government interventions, and the potential for a looming recession.
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S&P 500 Forecast
- Peter Berezin predicts the S&P 500 will fall to 4450 by year-end, a 15% decline.
- This bearish outlook stems from potential P/E ratio drops and falling earnings estimates, not wild assumptions.
Deep Recession Risk
- Further S&P 500 decline is possible, even beyond the predicted 4450, if the recession deepens.
- Unfavorable policies, including tariff policies and the potential "Mar-a-Lago Accord," could exacerbate the situation.
Weakening Dollar
- The weakening dollar, typically a risk-off currency, signals declining investor confidence in U.S. markets.
- This trend, driven by a potential capital account surplus, could lead to lower stock prices and a financial crisis.