
On Point with Meghna Chakrabarti What happens when you can bet on anything?
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Oct 8, 2025 Robin Hanson, an economics professor at George Mason University and a leading advocate of prediction markets, dives into the rising popularity of betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. He discusses how prediction markets operate and their potential to outperform traditional forecasting methods. The conversation touches on the implications of betting on elections, the regulatory landscape, and the ethical dilemmas of wagering on sensitive topics. With an engaging debate on market influences and consumer protections, this discussion unpacks a provocative frontier in economics.
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Student Turned Full-Time Market Trader
- Max de Grote started trading prediction markets around the U.S. election and makes about 500 trades weekly.
- He used news and social signals to find mispriced markets and funded living expenses through wins.
Markets Translate Beliefs Into Prices
- Prediction markets price outcomes as assets where price equals the market's probability estimate.
- Traders profit by spotting and correcting prices they believe are wrong, moving the market.
Rapid Mainstream Growth In 2024
- Prediction markets exploded in 2024 with billions of contracts traded and large valuations for platforms.
- Platforms pitch themselves as tools to aggregate collective forecasts and inform decisions beyond gambling.

