Tifo Football Podcast Liverpool Arsenal predictions and what does data do in football?
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Aug 28, 2025 Mark Carey, Thom Harris, and Conor O'Neill, all expert data analysts in football, delve into the fascinating world of match predictions and statistics. They discuss the upcoming Liverpool vs. Arsenal clash, highlighting how single number models and expected goals (xG) shape analysis. The trio critiques tactics in the Premier League, the unique challenges faced by goalkeepers, and the importance of contextualizing player performance metrics. Their engaging dialogue seamlessly blends data insights with humor, making for an entertaining and informative discussion.
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Wait For A Meaningful Sample
- It's too early in the season to draw strong conclusions from two games; narratives often overstate early results.
- Sample size grows predictive power quickly up to ~10–12 games, then levels off.
Jokaresh: Looks Odd, Creates Value
- Joe likened Jokaresh's clumsy moments to Moneyball signings who looked odd but added unseen value.
- Panel argued Jokaresh's off-ball runs will stretch defenses even when he doesn't score.
Measure Movement, Not Just Touches
- Off-ball runs can be quantified and materially change chance creation despite no touch on the ball.
- Specialized models measure how movement increases a team's scoring probability beyond raw goals or assists.
