Stuff You Should Know How Election Polling Works and Doesn't Work
Sep 17, 2020
The podcast dives into the complexities of election polling, revealing how media narratives can skew public perception. It discusses the reliability of polling methods, especially after the surprising 2016 election results. New communication techniques like robocalls are examined, along with the challenges of representing diverse demographics. Additionally, it emphasizes the critical importance of understanding margins of error and poll limitations while engaging listeners with insights on supporting black-owned bookstores.
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2016 Polling Accuracy
- The 2016 election polling wasn't far off, contrary to popular belief.
- Media misrepresented poll data and the public misunderstood statistics.
2016 Election Predictions
- Media predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide victory in 2016.
- Nate Silver highlighted that polling is inherently flawed, especially state polling.
Polling Error Analysis
- National polling error in 2016 was actually lower than the historical average.
- State polls, however, underperformed, impacting swing states and the Electoral College outcome.