#289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine
May 25, 2022
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Stephen Kotkin, a renowned historian specializing in Stalin and Soviet history, dives deep into the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He explores the historical parallels between Putin and Stalin, shedding light on their geopolitical ambitions. Kotkin discusses the implications of authoritarianism versus democracy, emphasizing Ukraine’s struggle for freedom. The conversation also highlights the humanitarian crises caused by war and the moral obligations leaders have to protect civilians. With predictions for Putin's future regime, this discussion is a captivating blend of history and current affairs.
Putin's perceived history of aggressive actions without severe consequences influenced the decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.
The Putin regime prioritizes Russian greatness over ethical considerations, driven by a vision of a resurgent Russia on the global stage.
Russia aims to weaken Western dominance through internal strife and exploitation while positioning itself as the central power in a multipolar world.
Russian strategy focuses on military hardware and cyber capabilities, neglecting human capital, education, and governance crucial for modern power.
Ukraine's resistance revitalized Western power, highlighting the importance of human resolve and readiness in conflicts.
Deep dives
Calculation and Miscalculation in the Decision to Invade Ukraine
The decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022 was influenced by a perceived history of getting away with aggressive actions. Putin's sense of impunity was fueled by past invasions and annexations without bearing significant consequences. The lack of a robust response to previous actions, coupled with increasing dependencies on Russia, contributed to the belief that further aggressive actions could be conducted without severe repercussions. This perspective, combined with a fervent commitment to Russian greatness even at the expense of human lives, led to the calculation that another invasion could be carried out successfully.
Ideology, Passion, and Power
The Putin regime is driven not just by kleptocracy, but by a deep belief in Russian greatness and national mission. The regime's leaders operate within an ideological framework that prizes Russia's position as a global power above individual lives or ethical considerations. Passion and conviction for a vision of a resurgent Russia dominate decision-making, with sentimentality about Russian identity and history playing a crucial role in justifying aggressive actions. Despite existing in a Western-dominated world, the regime focuses on establishing a Russian-centric global order through technological advancement, financial independence, and domination in key sectors.
Illusions of Alternatives and Strategic Goals
Putin's leadership thrives on the belief that a multipolar world should replace Western dominance, with Russia at the helm of a new global order. The regime operates under the illusion that weakening Western nations through internal strife, mistakes, or corruption will pave the way for Russia's ascendancy. While absorbing Western technologies, exploiting economic dependencies, encouraging divisions in the West, and strategizing for a collapse of Western influence, the regime's overarching goal is to position Russia as the central power in a reshaped international system.
Human Capital Neglect and Grand Strategy
The regime's lack of investment in human capital, healthcare, education, infrastructure, and governance hinders Russia's capacity to compete with the West on crucial modern power elements. Instead, the regime focuses on exploiting resources, building dependencies, and weakening Western resolve. By neglecting to enhance key elements that contribute to a nation's strength, such as education and technological innovation, Russia's grand strategy relies on the assumption that weakening the West will pave the way for Russian dominance.
Putin's Grand Strategy and Western Response
Russian grand strategy involves investing heavily in military hardware, cyber capabilities, and spoilation techniques to weaken the West. The success of Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression has revitalized Western power and resolve. The Ukrainian people's sacrifices and unification against a common enemy have played a significant role in challenging Russian aggression and restoring Western strength.
Zelensky's Courage and Effectiveness in Leadership
President Zelensky's transition from a TV producer to a wartime leader has showcased his courage and dedication to Ukraine. He risked his life by choosing to stay and fight rather than flee, displaying exemplary leadership. Zelensky's effectiveness in information warfare and garnering international support has significantly boosted Ukraine's position in the conflict.
Challenges and Strategic Considerations Amid the Conflict
The conflict in Ukraine has raised concerns about nuclear escalation and the shifting dynamics of power. While the West has shown support for Ukraine with heavy weapons supply, concerns linger about potential nuclear or chemical warfare escalation. The conflict echoes historical parallels, highlighting the complexities of warfare, resistance, and international responses in the face of aggression.
Warfare Relies on Human Resolve and Sacrifice
The podcast highlights that the ultimate factor in warfare is the human capital, emphasizing the importance of morale, courage, bravery, and willingness to sacrifice in conflicts. It stresses that even with advanced weaponry, people's resolve and readiness to put their lives on the line remain unparalleled. The example of individuals using Molotov cocktails against tanks illustrates the significance of determination and patriotism in combat, underscoring the lesson that societal engagement and readiness to fight are crucial elements in war.
Challenges in Global Relations and Geopolitics
The discussion delves into the complexities of global political dynamics, with a focus on Russia's ambitions for a closed sphere of influence on its neighbors and tensions with Western democracies. It explores the impact of China's alignment with Russia in the context of the Ukraine conflict, which risks alienating European and American relations. The conversation also addresses the unpredictability of international affairs, highlighting potential future conflicts and the role of authoritarian regimes in shaping geopolitics.
OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(10:17) – Putin and Stalin
(21:07) – Putin vs the West
(43:59) – Response to Oliver Stone
(55:05) – Russian invasion of Ukraine
(1:34:33) – Putin’s plan for the war
(1:42:32) – Henry Kissinger
(1:48:26) – Nuclear war
(1:59:00) – Parallels to World War II
(2:21:45) – China
(2:29:54) – World War III
(2:37:23) – Navalny
(2:41:40) – Meaning of life
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