Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Tony Crescenzi & Adam Posen
Aug 27, 2025
Join insightful discussions about the trading advantages of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures, renowned for their liquidity. Delve into the balancing act of financial policy and the Senate Banking Committee's pivotal role in Federal Reserve appointments. Explore the significance of central bank independence and the challenges posed by political influences on interest rates. This engaging dialogue is enriched with highlights on innovative products enhancing everyday life.
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Market Calm Reflects Institutional Expectations
- Markets remain relatively calm because participants expect checks and balances to constrain extreme changes at the Fed.
- Posen suggests uncertainty persists but institutional barriers reduce the chance of sudden policy shifts.
Watch Institutional Checks Carefully
- Expect political checks and balances like the Senate Banking Committee to slow or block controversial Fed appointments.
- Watch these institutional processes as they determine whether independence and credibility hold up.
Why Central Bank Independence Matters
- Independent central banks lower average inflation by anchoring expectations, according to Adam Posen summarizing Rogoff and others.
- Political pressure and erosion of technocratic expertise increase the risk of higher inflation and worse policy outcomes.