Robert Kaplan | Veteran Geopolitical Analyst On A World In Permanent Crisis
Feb 25, 2025
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Robert Kaplan, a veteran geopolitical analyst and author of acclaimed works like 'The Revenge of Geography', dives deep into the decline of the international rules-based order. He discusses the growing influence of geography in shaping politics and conflicts, emphasizing the critical role of regional military alliances. Kaplan critiques leadership styles, contrasting utopian ideals with a tragic view of governance. He also explores the transformative impact of technology, particularly drones, on modern warfare and geopolitical dynamics, while reflecting on Australia’s strategic position in a volatile world.
The decline of the rules-based international order signifies a critical moment where historical alliances are increasingly vital amid geopolitical instability.
Leaders with tragic wisdom can navigate complexities better than utopian thinkers, influencing both domestic policies and global relations significantly.
Deep dives
Deterioration of the International Order
The current international rules-based order is deteriorating, with significant geopolitical shifts occurring around the globe. Events such as rhetorical support for authoritarianism and shifting alliances highlight this instability. Kaplan emphasizes the historical context, noting that the post-war alliance lasted 80 years, an extraordinary feat in a world characterized by constant change. As alliances weaken, countries find themselves increasingly isolated, making it critical to recognize the value of long-standing partnerships during turbulent times.
The Fragility of Globalization
Globalization has created a tightly interconnected world, but this interconnectivity also comes with significant risks, as illustrated by potential conflicts between major powers. A military confrontation in critical areas like the South China Sea could result in devastating disruptions to global supply chains, far surpassing those seen in other regional conflicts. The increasing fragility of this interconnected system raises concerns about the balance between the benefits of globalization and its vulnerabilities. This precarious equilibrium suggests that geopolitical crises can have unprecedented global effects, emphasizing the need for resilience in global markets.
The Impact of Leadership Styles
Kaplan discusses the differences between leaders characterized by tragic wisdom and those driven by utopian thinking, using Trump as an example of the latter. He argues that leaders with a sense of the tragic understand the complexities of power and history, often resulting in more stable governance. Conversely, utopian leaders can create environments where unrealistic solutions thrive, leading to unpredictability. This dynamic highlights the importance of leadership approaches in shaping both domestic policies and international relations, as leaders influence each other's styles and decision-making processes.
Robert Kaplan has been sighted as one of the most influential geopolitical thinkers of the modern era. The Revenge Of Geography, Surrender or Starve, Balkan Ghosts, Asias Cauldron, The Tragic Mind, and so on, I counted 18 books so far with his most recent being - Waste Land: A World In Permanent Crisis.
I’ve listened to many of his books at this point, I found Revenge Of Geography a few years ago whilst preparing for my interviews with Tim Marshall.
00:00 - Robert D. Kaplan 00:54 - Deterioration Of The Rules Based Order 08:34 - Utopian Versus Tragic Leaders 14:32 - Geographies Role In Shaping Geopolitics 23:05 - Writing For History Or Influence? 25:13 - Australia 28:46 - A Position Robert Holds That Folds Against The Status Quo
🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg Follow me on Instagram – @ryanfhogg
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