Think from KERA What global experts worry about in 2026
Jan 16, 2026
Paul Stares, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in conflict prevention, dives into rising global tensions and U.S. national security threats. He highlights Venezuela as a key risk, discusses the implications of U.S. military actions, and examines the complexity of U.S. relationships in the Middle East. Stares also addresses the rising risk of domestic violence in the U.S. and the potential for cyber threats to critical infrastructure, exploring the delicate balance between support for Ukraine and maintaining ties with Russia.
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Fraying Global Order Raises Conflict Risk
- The post‑World War II rules‑based order is fraying and creating uncertainty in interstate behavior.
- This erosion encourages more cross‑border attacks and pushes states to test limits of acceptable conduct.
Eighteen Years Of Early Warnings
- The Council on Foreign Relations has run this Preventive Priorities Survey for 18 years to warn policymakers.
- Its aim is to prioritize U.S. preventive engagement toward conflicts most likely to draw American involvement.
Focus On Discrete Contingencies
- The survey focuses on discrete political‑military events rather than diffuse risks like climate or pandemics.
- That choice narrows prediction to actionable contingencies policymakers can address with diplomacy or aid.