In this engaging discussion, guests Jason Furman, a Harvard economics professor and former Obama advisor, and Mariana Mazzucato, an innovation economist from UCL, tackle the complexities of Trump's economic agenda. Alongside Stephen Moore, former Trump economic advisor, and Allison Schrager, Bloomberg columnist, they debate the effectiveness of tariffs in boosting American jobs versus potential inflation. Jeff Ferry, representing manufacturing interests, adds insights on domestic self-sufficiency. The episode dives deep into deregulation, its risks, and the balance needed for sustainable growth.
The economists debate the effectiveness of tariffs, with opinions divided on their impact on domestic jobs and inflation.
Deregulation is presented as a double-edged sword, with some arguing it fosters growth while others caution against potential negative outcomes.
Concerns about economic uncertainty and the risk of recession highlight the complex relationship between Trump's policies and economic performance.
Deep dives
Diverse Perspectives on Trump's Economic Impact
The discussion revolves around whether Donald Trump's first 100 days led to a stronger U.S. economy. Debaters express mixed views, with some, like Alison Schrager and Jason Furman, asserting that economic indicators show a weakened position, while others, such as Jeff Ferry, argue that focusing on the domestic economy is a positive step. This tug-of-war reflects broader concerns about inflation, trade wars, and the tension between globalization and domestic growth. Ultimately, this debate underscores the complexity of measuring economic strength in Trump's early presidency.
The Role of Tariffs in U.S. Strategy
The conversation explores the effectiveness of tariffs as a strategy for U.S. economic growth, with conflicting opinions among participants. Jason Furman argues that tariffs will lead to higher unemployment and inflation while hurting consumers, presenting a destructive long-term outlook. In contrast, Jeff Ferry defends tariffs as a means of protecting domestic jobs and fostering growth, referencing historical examples of high tariffs driving economic advancement. The discussion reveals varying perceptions of how tariffs impact both the domestic workforce and international trade dynamics.
The Stakes of Deregulation
The debate transitions to the implications of deregulation on economic growth, with Stephen Moore supporting deregulation as beneficial for growth, citing the excessive costs of certain regulations. Mariana Mazzucato counters, emphasizing that regulations can foster safety, innovation, and business investment, arguing that poorly designed deregulation can lead to negative health and safety outcomes. Other participants, such as Alison Schrager, agree that while regulations can be burdensome, a careful approach to deregulation could foster economic prosperity. This highlights a critical tension in balancing regulatory needs with economic objectives.
Prospects for Recession Amid Policy Changes
The discussion shifts to whether Trump's policies might precipitate a recession, with participants expressing concerns about the economic uncertainty resulting from his administration's strategies. Alison Schrager and Mariana Mazzucato argue that heightened tariffs and uncertainty could slow growth and impair business investment, increasing recession risks. Stephen Moore, however, remains optimistic about avoiding recession, citing potential trade deals that could stimulate the economy. This divergence illustrates the complicated interplay between policy decisions and economic outcomes in the current climate.
Historical Context and Future Implications
Participants draw on historical examples and economic theory to frame current economic issues within broader contexts. Jeff Ferry and Mariana Mazzucato debate the actual effectiveness of tariffs implemented during previous administrations, arguing over their long-term impact on jobs and economic performance. The discussion alludes to the importance of smart economic policy over reactive measures, as well as the need for coherent strategies to address structural issues in the economy. This historical lens serves to underscore the critical nature of informed policy-making in achieving sustainable economic growth.
The first 100 days of President Trump’s second term have come with a wide range of changes for the nation’s economy and global supply chains. Could these changes lead to a more prosperous America, or hardship for individuals and businesses? In partnership with Bloomberg, five renowned economists look at President Trump’s economic agenda during his first 100 days and discuss tariffs as a strategy, whether deregulation is good for growth, and whether the President's "medicine" means a recession.
Jason Furman, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers; Professor at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government
Allison Schrager, Economist, Bloomberg Opinion Contributor & Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute
Stephen Moore, Former Senior Economic Advisor to President Trump; Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation; Co-founder of Unleash Prosperity
Mariana Mazzucato, Professor of Economics at University College London; Author of "Mission Economy"
Jeff Ferry, Chief Economist Emeritus at the Coalition for a Prosperous America; Previous Tech Executive
Mishal Husain, Editor-at-Large for Bloomberg Weekend, is the guest moderator.
