Masters in Business At the Money: What Data Matters and What Doesn't
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Nov 13, 2024 
Bill McBride, creator of Calculated Risk, shares his two decades of experience dissecting economic data. He discusses the critical indicators investors should focus on, like non-farm payrolls and GDP, versus misleading sentiment data. The conversation also delves into how rent impacts inflation metrics and monetary policy, providing insights on real estate trends amid fluctuating inventory levels. McBride's expertise helps clarify what truly matters in economic analysis, aiding listeners in making informed investment decisions.
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Key Economic Indicators
- Focus on key economic releases like the employment report, GDP, and housing data (starts and sales).
- Track other releases primarily to identify unexpected changes or surprises.
Interpreting Economic Data
- The employment report provides the best insight into current economic conditions, unlike the lagging GDP report.
- Housing starts and new home sales offer some predictive value, but no model is perfect.
Ignoring Sentiment Data
- Ignore sentiment data, especially surveys, due to their inherent subjectivity and political bias.
- This bias is particularly evident in recent decades, influencing perceptions based on the president's party.