American Monetary Association 379: The Great Demographic Reversal, Ageing, Inequality & Inflation Revival by Charles Goodhart (Goodhart’s Law)
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan join today to elaborate on a significant global prediction that low-interest rates won’t last. When they go away, it will place substantial hardship on the economy. Charles and Manoj authored the book The Great Demographic Reversal, a book that will outline the rise in inflation and interest rates but lead to a pullback in inequality. Ultimately, Charles Goodhart shares Goodhart’s Law.
Books: The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival
Key Takeaways:
[2:00] It’s a time to be thankful.
[3:20] The Fannie Mae loan limits are going to be increasing!
[4:15] Jason Hartman Flash Briefing: The Story of Inflation
[7:50] How are Manoj and Charles connected?
[10:20] How have globalization and technology influenced inflation?
[13:45] The debt ratios around the world have been jumping up very sharply.
[14:00] Will interest rates go up?
[15:00] The best way to get out of debt is to grow faster.
[17:00] Japan is aging itself out of existence with its extremely low birthrates.
[18:20] Robots won’t do; we need a reallocation from one part of the economy.
[22:00] Why is the dependency ratio so important?
[23:45] The way Japan has been treated has been symptomatic of many of the analysis problems that we see in the global economy.
[25:45] Manoj comments on what allowed Japan’s debt to get so high.
[27:25] One result of the pandemic was that every country becomes more national and self-reliant.
[29:45] Are we moving into an era of stagflation?
[30:15] What kind of inflation is coming? US or Global? And how much?
[35:00] Goodhart’s Law
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