Bitcoin Archive w Archie 99% Are Ignoring This 2026 Bitcoin WARNING — The Bear Market Has JUST Begun (Willy Woo)
Jan 13, 2026
Willy Woo, an on-chain Bitcoin analyst known for his deep market insights, warns about a looming bear market as we approach 2026. He discusses the impact of Bitcoin's halving on liquidity cycles and contrasts bullish chart indicators with troubling macro narratives. Willy highlights the slowing retail inflow and recycled institutional capital, underscoring retail FOMO's absence in this cycle. He also raises concerns about quantum computing risks and explores Bitcoin's dual role as a store of value and medium of exchange, predicting significant challenges for corporate treasuries.
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October 2025 As Bear Market Start
- Willy Woo argues October 2025 may have been the start of a new bear market despite expectations of a fourth-quarter rally.
- He notes liquidity measures (M2) rising haven't flowed into Bitcoin, creating a major divergence versus gold and equities.
Halving Meets Broader Liquidity Cycles
- Bitcoin's four-year halving-driven supply shock interacts with a broader US election/liquidity cycle, creating predictable liquidity pulses.
- Willy Woo sees Bitcoin as an early-warning asset that tops before equities as broader business cycles deteriorate.
Retail FOMO Is Missing
- Retail FOMO is missing this cycle, so capital inflows lack the usual price multiplier that drives parabolic rallies.
- Willy measures this via on-chain capital flow metrics (MVRV/realized cap) and sees current multipliers stuck low.