Alternate Shots with Richard Haass and John Ellis Episode 12
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Jan 7, 2026 Hosts dive into the complexities of U.S. intervention in Venezuela, framing it as a leadership change rather than mere regime change. They explore the motivations behind the operation, including oil access and drug trade, while cautioning about the potential pitfalls of failed arrangements. The geopolitical landscape is examined, revealing how Russia and China might actually benefit. The conversation also touches on Trump’s unpredictable comments and contrasts Venezuela’s situation with that of neighboring Mexico and Colombia, questioning the coherence of U.S. strategy.
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Leadership Change, Not Regime Overhaul
- The U.S. operation removed Maduro but left Venezuela's broader ruling structure largely intact.
- Richard Haass calls it leadership change, not regime change, focused on securing policy concessions not transforming society.
The Fragile Deal Is The Real Risk
- The key test is whether the U.S. and successor government can sustain their mutual understanding on oil, drugs, and regional ties.
- Haass warns a breakdown would force the administration into deeper, costly involvement it currently wants to avoid.
Global Powers Gain From U.S. Distraction
- Europe views the operation as dangerous, reinforcing perceptions of a rogue U.S. and legitimizing great-power assertions.
- Haass argues Russia and China quietly benefit from a distracted America even if they publicly protest.