Gulf Intelligence Podcasts PODCAST: Daily Energy Markets - Oct 20th
Oct 20, 2025
Omar Najia, a derivatives trader at BB Energy, and Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist at ADM Investor Services, share their insights on global energy dynamics. They delve into China's surprising 5% growth amidst falling inventories, and the implications of the surge in oil on tankers. The duo discusses the geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China, especially regarding rare earths, and OPEC+'s strategies for managing supply. They explore the connection between Fed rate cuts and future oil prices, highlighting a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors.
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Market Is Structurally Short And Geopolitically Supported
- Omar Najia argues the market is structurally short and geopolitics support higher prices despite short-term weakness.
- He believes the next significant move for oil is higher, not lower, and selling now is unwise.
China Stocks And Oil-On-Water Distort Signals
- Robin Mills says Chinese stock builds are effectively off-market storage that caps upside until withdrawals occur.
- She attributes much 'oil on water' to longer voyages from Red Sea disruptions and sanctioned cargoes awaiting transfers.
Rare Earths Move Is Strategic Posturing
- Marc Ostwald frames US-China rare earth posturing as ambiguous headline-driven noise that algos amplify.
- He warns the rare earths move signals China's attempt to show leverage but has limited mining economic weight.