Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 100: The Bull Market Is In Complacency. With David Rosenberg.
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Oct 31, 2025 
David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research and a macroeconomist known for his contrarian views, joins Harry Melandri. They dive into the fallout from the Fed's latest decisions and explore what Rosenberg calls a 'bull market in complacency.' He discusses worrying valuation extremes in the S&P 500, the disconnect between the economy and stock market, and the fragile nature of consumer spending. Rosenberg also highlights risks in corporate credit and the significant impacts of AI-driven capital expenditures on economic stability.
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Stock Market Prices The Long Run
- The S&P 500 has become a long-duration growth index pricing multi-year earnings booms rather than the near-term cycle.
- David Rosenberg warns this disconnect creates complacency because the economy's fundamentals are weaker than market prices imply.
Nowcasts Diverge; Bonds Likely Lower
- Rosenberg's models and regional Fed nowcasts point to near-zero real GDP growth, contrasting sharply with optimistic Atlanta Fed estimates.
- He expects Treasury yields to trend lower over the next 3–12 months despite Fed messaging.
Spending Outpaces Shrinking Incomes
- Real personal disposable income has fallen about 1.2% annualized since April while real consumer spending rose 2.6%.
- Rosenberg argues this gap is financed by falling savings and an equity wealth effect driven by the AI rally, creating instability.