What's Next For Markets MasterClass D.C. Update With Don Schneider
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Oct 12, 2025 Don Schneider, Deputy Head of U.S. Policy Research at Piper Sandler, dives into the intricacies of the recent government shutdown. He discusses the political strategies of both parties and how selective furloughs are minimizing impact on services. Don sheds light on the potential duration of the shutdown, its disruptions to data reporting, and the implications for investors. He also explores Trump’s tariff threats against China and how new tax changes could lead to significant consumer refunds in 2026, influencing spending and economic dynamics.
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Shutdown As A Deliberate Political Strategy
- Democrats intentionally used the shutdown as a political tool to pressure Republicans and defend against Trump.
- That strategy, plus selective relief measures, has allowed Democrats to stick in longer than expected.
Soft Shutdown Erodes Leverage
- The administration's selective management of the shutdown is softening immediate pain and reducing public backlash.
- That soft approach is backfiring politically by reinforcing Democratic narratives and enabling a longer shutdown.
Prepare For Data Gaps And Surprises
- Expect more delayed economic data and plan for higher uncertainty in near-term releases.
- Monitor which agencies are recalled (e.g., BLS for CPI) because key prints may still occur on an ad-hoc basis.