What Subprime Lending Growth is Telling Us About the Economy
Dec 5, 2024
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The discussion kicks off with the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions and the mixed economic signals impacting GDP and inflation. Scotiabank's recent earnings reveal both challenges and stabilization in the banking sector. The rise of subprime lending in Canada sparks intriguing discussions about consumer behavior and the growing reliance on Home Equity Lines of Credit. Plus, the unexpected low delinquency rates draw attention to the economic pressures consumers face. The episode also touches on Intel's leadership shake-up and its ongoing struggles in the semiconductor industry.
The Bank of Canada is debating interest rate cuts due to economic challenges, with GDP contractions and inflation rates driving their decision-making process.
Canadians are increasingly saving instead of spending, as household savings have surged to a three-year high amid economic uncertainties and rising cost of living.
The growth of subprime lending and BNPL services highlights a shift towards alternative financing among consumers, but rising delinquency rates pose significant risks.
Deep dives
Economic Challenges and Bank of Canada Decisions
The current economic landscape in Canada is grappling with significant challenges, including potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. There's a consensus that a cut is likely, but the debate centers on whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points. Critical indicators such as GDP growth, which has contracted for six consecutive quarters, suggest a weakening economy. Other factors impacting the decision include rising inflation rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts, which complicates Canada’s position in maintaining a stable currency without exacerbating inflation.
Shift in Canadian Consumer Behavior
Recent data indicates that Canadians are increasingly saving rather than spending, with household savings rates reaching a three-year high. This shift reflects a growing concern over the economic situation and the cost of living, resulting in a preference for financial caution despite decreasing interest rates. Notably, even significant reductions in policy rates have not translated into consumer confidence, signaling that low borrowing costs alone are insufficient to stimulate spending. This cautious spending behavior among consumers raises alarms about the overall economic health and future growth prospects in Canada.
Canadian Bank Earnings Under Scrutiny
The earnings reports from major Canadian banks, particularly from Scotiabank, reflect a mixed picture of stability and uncertainty. Scotiabank's recent results showed moderate earnings below expectations, along with a notable hike in provisions for credit losses. Despite an overall solid performance with a significant increase in net income from its Canadian segment, the outlook remains cautious due to increasing write-offs and economic unpredictability. Investors are advised to stay vigilant as banks navigate challenges posed by market conditions and changes in consumer credit behavior.
Growth of Subprime Lending Market
The subprime lending market in Canada is experiencing remarkable growth, with GoEasy reporting a 22% increase in loan applications year-over-year. This rise is indicative of a changing financial landscape where more consumers with lower credit scores are turning to alternative financing options. The average credit rating among GoEasy's borrowers has risen, suggesting a shift towards higher-quality loans backed by assets like home equity. However, the company faces risks as increasing loan defaults could signal broader economic issues, especially if unemployment continues to rise.
Buy Now, Pay Later Trend Analysis
The popularity of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services, exemplified by companies like Affirm, underscores a growing trend among consumers to finance even lower-value purchases. Affirm reported a 37% increase in revenue, highlighting the widespread adoption of BNPL options in retail. However, the declining average order value among transactions raises concerns about the financial health of consumers who resort to these financing alternatives for smaller items. With increasing delinquency rates across the board, the sustainability of such lending practices remains questionable, signaling potential future risks for both businesses and users.
In this episode, we start by discussing the Bank of Canada’s final rate announcement of the year. Will it be another 50bps cut, or will they ease up with just 25bps? We break down the economic data driving each case, including GDP contractions, inflation surprises, and the impact on the Canadian dollar.
We also discuss Scotiabank’s fourth-quarter results—what went wrong with their targets, where they’re showing stability, and why provisions and write-offs are key metrics to watch.
Plus, we analyze Intel’s CEO “retirement,” its struggle to regain dominance in chip manufacturing.
Finally, we touch on Goeasy and Affirm Holdings' latest results, exploring what their growth and delinquency data reveal about the health of Canadian and global consumers.
Tickers of stock discussed: GSY.TO, BNS.TO, AFRM, INTC