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Esmark offers to buy US Steel after a rejected offer from rival Cleveland-Cliffs. The bond market sees ongoing tumult as the Fed casts a hawkish shadow. TaskUs CEO discusses the need for content moderation sparked by Generative AI. The podcast also analyzes the Treasury trade, AI-generated content challenges, stock performance, yield curve movement, and recession signals.
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- The bond market is expected to see a steepening yield curve as investors reprice long-term debt due to the expectation of sticky inflation, potentially leading to a significant multi-sigma increase in long-end yields.
- A bottoming of the bond market is seen as a prerequisite for any significant repricing in equities, and rising long-term bond yields could lead to rotation away from technology sectors with duration exposure.
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Bond Market Expectations: Yield Curve Steepening and Rising Yields
The bond market is expected to see a steepening yield curve as investors reprice long-term debt due to the expectation of sticky inflation. This revaluation is driven by the need for a risk premium on assets affected by inflation. Short-term treasuries are becoming an attractive alternative with their higher yields, while long-term bonds lose appeal. The potential move in yields could be significant, with an estimated multi-sigma increase, particularly in the long end of the yield curve.
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