Chris Vermeulen, founder and chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, dives into the tumultuous financial landscape of 2025. He discusses how extreme volatility from geopolitical tensions and AI advancements is shaking up the markets. Vermeulen warns against the 'buy the dip' mentality, especially for those nearing retirement. He emphasizes the importance of capital preservation and suggests gold as a potential safe haven, while also predicting a 15-20% decline in real estate prices, signaling a broader economic impact.
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insights INSIGHT
2025's Extreme Market Volatility
2025 has been extremely volatile affecting emotions and asset prices widely.
This volatility challenges old market paradigms and unsettles many investors' confidence.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Trading Strategies Vary by Investor Type
Day traders benefit greatly from high volatility with intraday swings.
Long-term investors should protect capital by holding cash until market direction clears.
insights INSIGHT
Risk of "Buy the Dip" in Bears
"Buy the dip" strategy fails if a prolonged bear market unfolds.
Older or retiring investors risk massive losses if they keep buying dips now.
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Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss the highly volatile year of 2025 so far. He notes that volatility has been extreme across various asset classes, driven by factors like geopolitical tensions, AI advancements, and fears of an impending recession.
Vermeulen emphasized that while day traders thrive in such environments due to significant intraday swings, swing traders face increased risks with massive price gaps. Long-term investors should prioritize capital preservation by moving to cash until market clarity emerges, as he believes a bear market has already begun.
He warned against the "buy the dip" mentality, especially for those nearing retirement, cautioning that this approach could lead to significant losses in a prolonged bear market. Vermeulen points out key indicators of an impending financial reset, including economic data showing hiring declines and rising unemployment, as well as housing market corrections with inventories soaring.
Gold was discussed as a safe haven asset, though Vermeulen cautioned about potential pullbacks. He suggested that gold miners could offer better opportunities once the market stabilizes. Seasonality plays a role in his analysis, noting that stock markets typically struggle post-May, aligning with his bearish outlook.
Real estate was also addressed, with Vermeulen predicting price drops of 15-20% and warning about the broader economic impact as housing values decline. He highlighted the psychological effect on investors when their largest asset depreciates, potentially leading to panic selling across markets.
The U.S. dollar's potential strength was discussed, with Vermeulen suggesting it could rally in a risk-off environment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Market Volatility & Trading4:58 - Markets in Topping Stage8:30 - Cliff Phase Indicators15:22 - Downside Targets Gold18:50 - Expectations for Miners?23:18 - Seasonality in 2025?26:00 - Silver Markets & Risk?28:57 - Bitcoin Decoupling31:45 - Real Estate & Nest Eggs34:30 - Google Search Trends42:08 - Dollar Thoughts48:49 - Mkt Resets & Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.
Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.
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