Haley's path & Biden's only move - with Mike Murphy
Dec 3, 2023
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Mike Murphy, a political strategist and commentator, joins the podcast to discuss the Republican presidential contest, President Biden's support for Israel, and challenges he faces within his base. They condemn Hamas, analyze Biden's performance, and explore the potential for challengers to Donald Trump in the Republican primary. They also discuss the importance of endorsements in Iowa and the potential challenges Trump winning the nomination would present for Biden's campaign.
Nikki Haley's rising momentum in the Republican primary poses a potential threat to Donald Trump's frontrunner position.
If Donald Trump secures the nomination, it could cause panic among Democrats and challenge Joe Biden's campaign, highlighting the need for experienced and knowledgeable leaders in this period of increased geopolitical stakes.
Deep dives
Nikki Haley emerges as a potential contender in the Republican primary
Nikki Haley has been gaining momentum in the Republican primary, positioning herself as a strong contender against Donald Trump. She has performed well in Iowa and New Hampshire, garnering support from key figures in the Republican Party. Haley's rise in the polls and strong debate performances have solidified her status as a serious candidate. However, she faces competition from Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie. The Iowa caucuses will be crucial for Haley's campaign, as a strong showing could propel her into the top tier of candidates.
Lessons from the 1984 Democratic primary
The 1984 Democratic primary provides a valuable lesson for understanding how an apparently strong candidate like Donald Trump could face a real challenge. In 1984, Walter Mondale seemed invincible, but Gary Hart emerged as a strong competitor by defeating Mondale in New Hampshire. This race showed that late, significant movements can occur in primaries, particularly when a candidate captures the momentum. The same dynamics could play out in the current Republican primary race, with Nikki Haley emerging as a possible threat to Trump's frontrunner position.
The potential path to victory for Donald Trump
If Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination, it would likely cause panic among Democrats and challenge Joe Biden's campaign. Biden's weaknesses, combined with Trump's ability to appeal to his base, could make the general election highly competitive. However, Biden's campaign can combat this by making it a choice between the two candidates rather than a referendum on Biden. Highlighting the potential negative outcomes of a Trump victory and framing the election as a debate on motives and values could give Biden an advantage.
The impact on down-ballot races and Republican party divisions
If Trump secures the nomination, down-ballot races could be influenced by the perception of the Republican brand, which has been marred by divisions and an isolationist, nativist wing. The Republican Party's shift towards isolationism and nativism could have implications for foreign policy issues, such as support for Israel. Republican politics has historically witnessed a struggle between isolationist and internationalist factions, but the current ascendancy of the isolationist wing is concerning. It is crucial to have experienced and knowledgeable leaders in this period of increased geopolitical stakes.
There are two storylines we have been following closely that are not necessarily shaped by the minute-to-minute developments in Israel, but their outcomes could have an outsized impact on U.S. policy on Israel, Gaza, and the broader Middle East. The first is the Republican contest for president. The next debate is this coming week – December 6. In the last GOP presidential debate, the issue that attracted the most airtime was the October 7 war and America’s response. The second story is the growing problem President Biden is experiencing in his political base registering high disapproval of his support for Israel.
In the next episode, we'll resume with our weekly check-in with Haviv Rettig Gur from Israel, but today we check in with Mike Murphy on U.S. presidential politics.
Mike has worked on 26 gubernatorial and US Senate races across the country, including 12 wins in Blue States. He was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Arnold Scwarzenegger. He’s a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He’s co-host of the "Hacks on Tap" podcast and he has a newsletter on substack. Mike is also co-director of the University of Southern California’s Center for the Political Future.
To subscribe to Hacks on Tap: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hacks-on-tap/id1467297559
To subscribe to Murphy's substack newsletter: https://substack.com/@mikemurphy1
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