No Priors AI Libya’s $20B Smuggling Problem Threatens Energy Security
Nov 16, 2025
Fuel smuggling amounting to $20 billion is wreaking havoc on Libya’s energy sector. Corrupt networks are diverting subsidized fuel abroad, impacting local markets and international suppliers. This illegal trade has led to severe shortages, escalating black market prices, and a decline in government revenues. The situation not only undermines state stability but also supports armed groups and regional conflicts. Urgent reforms and international scrutiny are needed to restore accountability and break the cycle of corruption.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Scale Of The Fuel Loss
- Libya lost roughly $20 billion from 2022–2024 as subsidized fuel was siphoned and smuggled abroad.
- The divergence between soaring imports and flat domestic use shows systematic diversion, not mere waste.
Imports Rose But Domestic Use Stayed Flat
- Fuel imports more than doubled while domestic consumption did not rise, revealing large-scale export of subsidized product.
- In 2024 alone, an estimated $6.7 billion worth of fuel exited the country illegally, draining public resources.
Systemic Swap Scheme Enabled Smuggling
- The National Oil Corporation used crude-for-fuel swaps that bypassed normal accounting and enabled large outflows.
- Smuggling used land routes, trucks, vessels, and road pipelines to move subsidized fuel abroad.