Most Trump-Leaning Independents: He Shouldn't Be POTUS If Convicted
Oct 5, 2023
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White House reporter Deepa Shivaram, political correspondent Danielle Kurtzleben, and national political correspondent Mara Liasson discuss the latest polling data on Trump and Biden, public opinion on their actions, the role of third-party candidates and voter disillusionment, the hyper-partisan nature of politics, and the negotiation of House rules and the chaos caucus.
Around three-quarters of adults believe that former President Trump has done something wrong, with about half thinking he has done something illegal and a quarter thinking he has done something unethical.
The lack of enthusiasm among portions of the electorate may impact voter behavior in the upcoming election, with some voters expressing reluctance to vote for either candidate but feeling compelled to choose between the two.
Deep dives
Tight Race in 2024 Election
A new NPR PBS NewsHour Maris poll shows that in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, President Biden and former President Trump are virtually tied with 49% of registered voters supporting Biden and 47% supporting Trump. Both candidates have strong bases of support, making the race highly competitive. It is as if we have two incumbents running against each other, with Trump maintaining a rock-solid base and Biden having less enthusiastic but still loyal supporters.
Public Perception of Wrongdoing by Trump and Biden
According to the latest NPR PBS NewsHour Maris poll, around three-quarters of adults believe that former President Trump has done something wrong, with about half thinking he has done something illegal and a quarter thinking he has done something unethical. On the other hand, a majority of Americans also believe President Biden has done something wrong, albeit to a lesser extent. Around four in 10 think Biden has done something illegal, and another quarter think he has done something unethical. These perceptions are largely influenced by partisan lines, with Democrats more likely to see Trump's actions as illegal and Republicans more inclined to view Biden's actions as unethical.
Growing Partisanship and Lack of Enthusiasm
The polling data reflects the intense partisan environment in the United States and the lack of enthusiasm among portions of the electorate. While both Biden and Trump have relatively high satisfaction rates within their own parties, there is a significant portion of each party's base that is dissatisfied with their respective candidate. This lack of enthusiasm may impact voter behavior in the upcoming election, with some voters expressing reluctance to vote for either candidate but feeling compelled to choose between the two. Additionally, the deep polarization and growing partisanship contribute to the perception of a dysfunctional and broken government, further exacerbating disillusionment among voters.
According to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 49% of Americans believe he has done something illegal and an additional 26 percent believe he has done something unethical but not illegal.
Still, half of all independents prefer Trump to Biden — just 42% support the sitting president.