The Macro Brief – Supply chains, energy outlook, ESG sentiment
Jul 14, 2023
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James Pomeroy explains supply chain improvements, Charles Swabey assesses global energy reliance, and Wai-Shin Chan discusses growing anti-ESG sentiment in the US. They cover topics like shipping rates, renewable energy progress, Europe's gas diversification, and ESG sentiment survey results.
Global supply chains have shown remarkable recovery over the past 18 months, with congestion and delays alleviating considerably.
Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar have experienced substantial growth, making up about 12% of global power generation.
Deep dives
Supply chains recover from pandemic disruptions
After experiencing significant disruptions in the beginning of 2022, global supply chains have shown remarkable recovery over the past 18 months. Long delays at ports and congestion within supply chains have alleviated considerably. Shipping rates have also decreased, and supply chains now appear to be in a better state than before the pandemic. The decline in new orders due to weaker global demand for goods has helped clear up supply chain challenges, although there is a possibility of further disruptions depending on future demand spikes or supply shocks.
The progress and challenges of the energy transition
The decarbonization of the energy system is still a significant challenge, with fossil fuels still dominating the energy landscape. However, the growth of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar has been substantial, making up about 12% of global power generation. Solar energy, in particular, has experienced a rapid increase in supply, with strong installation rates and falling module prices. While wind power currently has a larger share, solar's growth rate suggests that it may soon take the lead. Europe has made progress in reducing dependency on Russian gas and expects demand for natural gas to fall due to increased renewables penetration and efficiency gains.
Anti-ESG sentiment in the United States and renewable energy outlook
ESG sentiment in the United States has shown pockets of resistance, with some resistance to fund sustainability objectives and the acceptance of ESG classification systems. However, this sentiment is mainly isolated to the US, while other regions have not shown the same resistance. ESG incorporation into investment decisions has slightly declined, potentially due to both a lack of understanding and reluctance to label oneself as ESG. In terms of the energy sector, the adoption of hydrogen is seen as promising, particularly in industries such as chemicals and transportation. Investors also expect oil and gas and renewables to have the best returns in the next 12 months, with some regional differences.